As Japan’s prime minister gets ready for his initial meeting with President Trump, he aims to establish a personal rapport with the leader of the superpower that his nation relies on both economically and militarily. However, in the unpredictable environment of the Trump administration, even a straightforward introduction could prove to be a risky endeavor.
The upcoming summit between Mr. Trump and Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, set for Friday, is the culmination of months of behind-the-scenes work by various Japanese figures, including not only diplomats and lawmakers but also one of the nation’s wealthiest investors and the widow of a former prime minister who was assassinated.
Upon arriving at the White House, Mr. Ishiba will likely seek assurances that Mr. Trump will not target Japan in a trade conflict or withdraw America’s security commitments established since 1945, especially as Japan faces a rising China and a nuclear-capable North Korea.
In return, the Japanese prime minister is expected to offer concessions, which may involve commitments to purchase more American military equipment or energy, invest in U.S.-based artificial intelligence, and take on a greater share of defense responsibilities in the Asia-Pacific region.
“This summit will be a pivotal moment,” stated Narushige Michishita, a security affairs professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “Will Mr. Trump see Japan as a crucial ally in the Asia-Pacific, or merely as another negotiator at the table?”
So far, Japan has not been mentioned in Mr. Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on several other significant U.S. allies and trading partners. The two leaders appeared to start on a positive note when Mr. Ishiba called Mr. Trump in November to congratulate him on his election win.
“It was my first conversation with him, but he seemed quite amiable,” Mr. Ishiba shared with reporters. “I felt he was someone I could communicate with openly.”
Nevertheless, former diplomats caution that expecting the unpredictable U.S. president to maintain the status quo may be overly ambitious. These are still the early days of a presidency focused on transactional outcomes, eager to deliver results to his supporters.
“Ishiba is taking a chance,” remarked Glen Fukushima, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a former U.S. trade diplomat. “The longer he spends with Trump, the greater the likelihood that Trump will impose new demands.”
Additionally, there is the potential for what some analysts are calling a “Gaza surprise,” referring to the recent summit between Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where the U.S. president unexpectedly proposed a takeover of Palestinian territory.
In preparation for the Japanese-U.S. summit, Mr. Ishiba has assembled an informal “Trump strategy council” comprising top officials from his government, who have brainstormed possible demands from the president and how Japan should respond, according to Japanese media reports.
Mr. Ishiba has also sought to learn from one of his predecessors, Shinzo Abe, who served as prime minister for a long time and was assassinated in 2022 after leaving office. Mr. Abe built a connection with Mr. Trump through face-to-face meetings during the first Trump administration.
One of Mr. Abe’s tactics was to arrive with gifts. When he became the first world leader to meet the newly elected Mr. Trump in 2016 at Trump Tower, Mr. Abe gifted him a gold-plated golf club. Three years later, at another summit, he presented a more substantial gift: a commitment to purchase 105 American F-35 fighter jets worth billions.
On Monday, Mr. Ishiba indicated that he would discuss joint artificial intelligence development with Mr. Trump. He made these remarks following a meeting with Sam Altman of OpenAI and Masayoshi Son, a Japanese tech investor who stood alongside Mr. Trump in December to announce a $100 billion investment plan aimed at creating 100,000 jobs in the U.S.
Mr. Ishiba is also expected to highlight significant increases in Japan’s defense spending, which could lead to further acquisitions of U.S.-made weapons. Japan intends to raise its defense budget by 65 percent over the five years leading up to 2027.
However, Mr. Ishiba’s attempts to follow Mr. Abe’s approach have not always been successful. After Mr. Trump’s re-election last year, Mr. Ishiba sought a meeting, only to be declined because the president-elect was not meeting with world leaders immediately.
Japan then turned to Mr. Abe’s widow, Akie Abe, who attended Mr. Trump’s inauguration as a guest of First Lady Melania Trump. Mr. Trump referenced his personal connection with the late Mr. Abe when discussing the upcoming summit with Mr. Ishiba.
“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was a very close friend of mine,” Mr. Trump told reporters last Friday. “What happened to him was very sad, one of the saddest things that ever happened, but they’re coming to talk to me, so I’m looking forward to it.”
Concerns remain that Mr. Ishiba may struggle to replicate the personal chemistry that Mr. Abe had with Mr. Trump. While Mr. Abe was an enthusiastic golfer who played with Mr. Trump at a club in Japan, Mr. Ishiba has hobbies such as building plastic models.
